Economy
The Big Takeaway From the September Jobs Report: The Economy Is Stalling
The U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 7.2 percent in September. That's not good news.
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The
key phrase for the September report is "little change." The total
number of unemployed Americans is little changed from August at 11.3
million. The ethnic breakdowns among the unemployed were also little
changed, as was the number of long-term unemployed (people jobless for
at least 27 weeks), which stood at 4.1 million for September. The U-6
rate, a broader measure of unemployment that includes people "marginally
attached" to the labor force, as well as people employed part-time for
economic reasons, declined only slightly to 13.6 percent in September
from 13.7 percent the previous month.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former Congressional Budget Office director, described the numbers as "lackluster, tepid, listless, or soft."
That
may prove to be the most positive news for jobs growth for the rest of
the year. The Oct. 16 agreement to end the nation's partial government
shutdown and avert default on the country's borrowing limit set up another round of fiscal fights and congressional contention at the end of the year. Previous budget battles have proven to be less than helpful
for the muddling recovery. September's report predates the culmination
of the most recent fiscal showdown, whose effects are more likely to be
found in the October employment report.
The unemployment rate is still crawling toward the 7 percent level where the Federal Reserve has said it will consider winding
down its bond-buying stimulus program, and is at its lowest level since
November 2008. Paul Ashworth, the chief U.S. economist at
macroeconomics research firm Capital Economics, said Tuesday's report is
likely to reinforce the market's expectation that the Fed would
continue its asset-purchase program into early 2014.
The
September report was originally scheduled to be released on Oct. 4, but
was delayed by the government shutdown. The October jobs report will be released one week late, on Nov. 8.
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