Intel report sees U.S. losing superpower status by 2030
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It predicts no country will have hegemonic power in a shift to "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."
11:29AM EST December 10. 2012 - A report by the National Intelligence Council predicts that the United States will lose its superpower status by 2030, but that no country -- including China -- will be a hegemonic power.Instead, the report says, power will shift to "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."
The council, which wrote Global Trends 2030, was established in 1979. It supports the U.S. director of National Intelligence and is the intelligence community's center for long-term strategic analysis.
The council's intelligence officers are drawn from government, academia and the private sector.
FULL REPORT: Global Trends 2030
"The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today," the report concludes. "By 2030, no country -- whether the U.S., China, or any other large country -- will be a hegemonic power."
The report also finds that the empowerment of individuals and a diffusion of power among states -- and from states -- to informal networks will have a "dramatic impact."
This development, the report finds, will largely reverse the historic rise of the West since 1750, "restoring Asia's weight in the global economy and ushering in a new era of 'democratization' at the international and domestic level."
The report further expects the rapid aging of the world population to continue as well as a growing demand on resources, which might lead to scarcities of food and water.
Among its assessment, the report looks at plausible worst-case and best-case scenarios over the next two decades.
In the former category, it sees the risk of interstate conflict increasing and the U.S. "draws inward and globalization stalls."
In the best-case scenario, China and the U.S. collaborate on a range of issues, leading to a broader global cooperation.
Global Trends 2030