May 24, 2013, 12:51 p.m. EDT
Bernanke out by August, QE ends, rates up: Crash
Commentary: Prepare now because easy money will dry up
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The “Dr. Boom” scenario: America
is about to “unleash a spending spree. Years of self-denial give way to
pent-up demand,” predicts UBS economist Maury Harris in USA Today’s
bold lead story.
His clue? Consumer sentiment: “Harris estimates that in the next five
years, catch-up consumption will boost annual consumer spending growth
by a half point to above 3% from about 2%.”
Getty Images
Reassuring? No, wishful thinking. Be very skeptical. As Robert Kuttner,
author of the new “Debtors’ Prison: The Politics of Austerity Versus
Prosperity” once wrote in BusinessWeek, “What do you call an economist
with a prediction? Wrong.”
Harris is bucking the headwinds of history. As Jeremy Grantham, chief
strategist of the $100 billion GMO money managers, recently told
InvestmentNews, the newspaper of record for America’s 90,000
professional investment advisers, “3% annual GDP growth is history.”
Here’s why you better be preparing today for a crash dead ahead. As
Pimco’s Bill Gross warned in his recent newsletter: “You’re going to
lose money investing ... because the central banks say so.” That’s
right, this is a Fed-driven rally. Soon the Fed will be forced to stop
printing cheap money.
Report: Obama admin. fought to keep Rosen warrant secret
Yet another development today in the case of James Rosen, the Fox News reporter who was monitored by the Justice Dept. after receiving classified information from a State Department security adviser.According to The New Yorker's Ryan Lizza, the Obama administration fought to keep the search warrant for Rosen’s private e-mail account secret on the grounds that they might need to monitor the account for a long period of time.
"Ronald C. Machen, Jr., the U.S. Attorney who is prosecuting Stephen Jin-Woo Kim, a former State Department adviser who allegedly leaked classified information to Rosen, insisted that the reporter should not be notified of the search and seizure of his e-mails, even after a lengthy delay," Lizza writes, citing a court filing.
Machen "argued that disclosure of the search warrant would preclude the government from monitoring the account... [and] added that “some investigations are continued for many years because, while the evidence is not yet sufficient to bring charges, it is sufficient to have identified criminal subjects and/or criminal activity serious enough to justify continuation of the investigation.”
Expect more outrage from the American press in 3, 2, 1....
Strassel: Conservatives Became Targets in 2008
The Obama campaign played a big role in a liberal onslaught that far pre-dated Citizens United.
On Aug. 21, 2008, the conservative American Issues Project ran an ad highlighting ties between candidate Obama and Bill Ayers, formerly of the Weather Underground. The Obama campaign and supporters were furious, and they pressured TV stations to pull the ad—a common-enough tactic in such ad spats.
What came next was not common. Bob Bauer, general counsel for the campaign (and later general counsel for the White House), on the same day wrote to the criminal division of the Justice Department, demanding an investigation into AIP, "its officers and directors," and its "anonymous donors." Mr. Bauer claimed that the nonprofit, as a 501(c)(4), was committing a "knowing and willful violation" of election law, and wanted "action to enforce against criminal violations."
AIP gave Justice a full explanation as to why it was not in violation. It said that it operated exactly as liberal groups like Naral Pro-Choice did. It noted that it had disclosed its donor, Texas businessman Harold Simmons. Mr. Bauer's response was a second letter to Justice calling for the prosecution of Mr. Simmons. He sent a third letter on Sept. 8, again smearing the "sham" AIP's "illegal electoral purpose."
Also on Sept. 8, Mr. Bauer complained to the Federal Election Commission about AIP and Mr. Simmons. He demanded that AIP turn over certain tax documents to his campaign (his right under IRS law), then sent a letter to AIP further hounding it for confidential information (to which he had no legal right).
The Bauer onslaught was a big part of a new liberal strategy to thwart the rise of conservative groups. In early August 2008, the New York Times trumpeted the creation of a left-wing group (a 501(c)4) called Accountable America. Founded by Obama supporter and liberal activist Tom Mattzie, the group—as the story explained—would start by sending "warning" letters to 10,000 GOP donors, "hoping to create a chilling effect that will dry up contributions." The letters would alert "right-wing groups to a variety of potential dangers, including legal trouble, public exposure and watchdog groups digging through their lives." As Mr. Mattzie told Mother Jones: "We're going to put them at risk."
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